M&A Activity in India Telecom - Part II

The Industry is continuing to see reducing ARPUs and a squeeze in MOU per subscriber per month

Top three operators/companies that are most likely to sell or exit are: 
1. Loop Telecom Pvt. Ltd
2. Etisalat DB Telecom India Pvt. Ltd.
3. Videocon Telecommunications Ltd

Loop has a wireless subscriber base of 2.84 million. Their market share is 0.46%
Gross Revenue is 162.40 Cr (%age change of -2% over last year)

Etisalat is at 0.0004 million with Market share at 0.00%
Gross Revenue is 20.46 Cr (%age change of -20% over last year)

Videocon is at 0.03 million subscriber base with Market Share at 0.01%. They have launched in only five of the 22 circles. They have been forced to launch as they are under probe by both the Central Vigilance Commission as well as the Prime Minister’s Office for delaying the roll-out of their operations

A few companies looking to acquire:
Among existing operators: 
STel is looking to acquire stake in companies or buy out a company as it has license to operate in only six small circles.
Among other options, STel investor C. Sivasankaran is looking to purchase a stake in Loop Telecom Pvt. Ltd

Companies looking to enter the Indian market:
- US giant AT&T
- European giants like Telekom Italia
- Middle East telecom giants Mobile Telecommunications Co (Zain) of Kuwait
- Qatar Telecom (Q-Tel)
- Russia’s Altimo

Regulatory Constraint: A three-year lock-in period for most of the new operators before they can sell out, therefore chances of consolidation in Indian telecom sector will likely start in early 2011. The government has been talking about allowing operators to sell or surrender their stake but a final decision is yet to be taken.

Data Source: Some information derived from TRAI July 2010

M&A Activity in India Telecom

The answer to the question "Are we going to see M&A in India telecom?"
Majority seem to say "Yes"
A few companies/operators who hold the 2G license were not able to get 3G licenses. It seems that it will be the end of road for them. If not this they will have to get into sharing agreements with operators owning 3G licenses.
In addition, many operators are finding it very difficult to operate in this highly competitive environment. Currently, there are about 15+ operators in the telecom space. Pricing is very competitive leading to miniscule profits. 
The operators in the lower segment seem to be most likely to the first ones acquired or exiting the market. 
I will write more on this in my next few posts.